Analysts at global research and brokerage firm Bernstein say bitcoin’s surge is fueled by Donald Trump’s rising chances in the 2024 election. They point to Microstrategy’s stock, soaring 191% this year, as a key signal of a looming market breakout. With Trump leading in key swing states, his election odds are igniting a stronger crypto rally, driving bitcoin higher.
Trump’s Election Chances Fuel Bitcoin Surge, Bernstein Analysts Reveal
Analysts at global research and brokerage firm Bernstein have highlighted that bitcoin’s recent surge is closely tied to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s increasing chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Microstrategy’s stock (Nasdaq: MSTR) serving as a key indicator for a potential market breakout.
In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia wrote:
We believe the recent bitcoin strength is being driven by the return of bitcoin’s correlation to Trump’s election odds.
They added that despite bipartisan support for digital assets, “the crypto market bid is stronger on Trump’s odds improving on the election prediction markets.” Currently, Trump holds the lead in five out of six swing states, according to Polymarket.
Bernstein also drew attention to Microstrategy’s performance, noting that its stock has outperformed bitcoin in 2024, gaining 191%, compared to bitcoin’s 55%. According to the analysts, Microstrategy’s strategic use of equity and debt to acquire bitcoin has proven successful. They described:
Microstrategy made the most of the bitcoin lows by issuing equity, convertible debt (close to $2 billion) to buy the bitcoin dip and has got rewarded for it.
Additionally, they commented on bitcoin miners, stating: “As bitcoin continues to gain strength, we expect the pure-play miners to catch up with the AI focused miners.”
