Bitcoin price has sharply declined over the past few days, which might have triggered some concerns from those who thought it would surge after its fourth halving.
The price of Bitcoin has dropped 11% since the halving, which occurred on April 20 at 12:09 am UTC.
On the halving date, Bitcoin traded around $64,000. In the immediate aftermath of halving, Bitcoin saw a short rally, topping above $67,000 on April 22. But since then, it has been gradually selling off, tumbling below $57,000 on May 1, according to CoinGecko data.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $57,362, down around 7% over the past 24 hours and more than 17% over the past 30 days.
The sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price post-halving might have surprised those who expected it to start rising in the aftermath of the event in line with some of the previous halving-linked cycles.
As previously mentioned, Bitcoin halvings have been historically associated with post-event rallies, usually coming in about a year or later. For example, Bitcoin skyrocketed about 3,000% in 17 months after halving in 2016, reaching a milestone of $20,000 in December 2017.
However, this ongoing cycle has been very different from the past in terms of Bitcoin halving characteristics. One such difference is that Bitcoin experienced an extraordinary bull run before the fourth halving, reaching a new all-time high right before the event. Such a price trajectory has never been seen before in the history of Bitcoin.
“What’s unique about this latest Bitcoin halving is the incredible bull run and price action leading up to it. Even considering this recent pullback, Bitcoin has still been up 35% since the start of the year,” Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told Cointelegraph.
Greenspan noted that the current drop in the price of BTC was somewhat expected in the context of a decline in the stock market and economic circumstances, stating:
“Considering the expectation of yet another Fed pivot and what’s happening in the stock market, Bitcoin’s current price action is hardly a surprise. We’ll be a lot smarter about that later today, though.”
Some crypto analysts had previously predicted that Bitcoin would drop following the fourth halving. In March 2024, analysts from JPMorgan predicted that it could drop toward $42,000 after the event.
According to 10x Research CEO and head analyst Markus Thielen, Bitcoin may fall to $52,000. The analyst believes that the primary driver for the recent rally was the inflow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has dramatically slowed down in the past month.
According to some analysts, including investment researcher Lyn Alden, there are many more reasons than just the halving and United States ETFs for Bitcoin to surge to new highs in 2024.
