The dollar fell and stocks struggled on Monday as investors trod carefully ahead of a U.S. presidential election of great consequence for the global economy, with a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut also expected later in the week.
In the U.S. presidential race, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote. It might not be clear who has won for days after voting ends.
Trump’s policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs may put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts believe, while Harris is seen as the continuity candidate.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, eased 0.3% to 103.63.
The dollar slid against a host of European and Asian currencies, losing 0.6% against the euro to $1.090. It also tracked down 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 152.11 and 0.5% against China’s yuan in the onshore market.
The dollar’s decline may be linked to a poll that showed Harris taking a surprise 3-point lead in Iowa, thanks largely to her popularity among female voters, dealers said.
European stocks were flat in early trading, with British shares the outlier, adding 0.4%.
Wall Street was heading for slim gains, with Nasdaq futures rising 0.2% and S&P 500 futures up 0.1%.
“Tomorrow will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote.
They cautioned that “there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it.”
U.S. government bonds rose, with yields on 10-year Treasury notes falling 5.6 basis points to 4.30%.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday.
RATES FOCUS
The week will also provide investors with global monetary policy catalysts. The most closely watched of a slew of rate decisions is the Fed, with decisions also due from the Bank of England (BoE), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Riksbank and Norges Bank.
Markets are leaning towards a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut.
“Based on current data, we see no reason for (the FOMC) to rush through rate cuts,” said analysts at ANZ.
“The election and uncertainty over the future fiscal path also support arguments for caution in recalibrating monetary policy.”
This week’s meeting of China’s powerful National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee is also at the top of investors’ radar.
The NPC meets from Nov. 4 to Nov. 8, with any further details of a raft of stimulus measures that were announced recently in focus.
Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.2%.
Reuters reported that at the NPC meeting China is considering approving the issuance of over 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in extra debt in the next few years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package which is expected to be further bolstered if Trump wins the election.
The Bank of England, which meets on Thursday, is similarly expected to ease rates by 25 bps. Its decision has been complicated by a sell-off in gilts following the Labour government’s budget last week.
Sterling was added 0.5% higher to $1.297, helped by a weaker dollar. It fell 0.3% last week.
Oil prices rose after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. Brent futures rose 1.8% to $74.41. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 1.9% to $70.83. [O/R]
