Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both put economics at the heart of their campaigns, but the two candidates have very different visions for what the economy might look like under their leadership.
The stock market has two divergent paths laid out for it, and the gap between the Democrat and the Republican on both policy and rhetoric has American investors spooked.
“What we’re hearing from investors is that this election is probably one of the most polarizing ever,” said Steven Wang, founder and CEO of dub, an investment platform that specializes in political portfolios. “Regardless of who wins, the impact on the markets will be immense.”
Wang told Newsweek that two different portfolios constructed by dub, each one based on a different outcome in the November election, had identified different industries that could benefit from a potential Trump or Harris victory, using data from political donations and prior market movements.
For example, Trump’s stances on energy deregulation and aggressive tariff policy could lead to a fossil fuel boom and growth in the industrial sector. In contrast, Harris’ focus on green energy sources and cybersecurity could see growth elsewhere.
The Trump portfolio identified traditional energy industries, like oil, as potential big winners under a second Trump term and defense contractors who would benefit from the former President’s bullish stance on military funding.
Cryptocurrency was also highlighted as an industry to watch, with many leading crypto investors backing Trump and donating to his campaign.
“A Trump win will mean that the stock market is likely to go up,” Wang told Newsweek. “He’s been a big advocate for tax cuts and deregulation, and he switched out the head to the FTC. He’s very friendly to internal oil policy and has suggested more tariffs.
“I think there is going to be a disconnect there though with a lot of these policies is going to be increased inflation.”
The top winners in the Harris portfolio were health care investments and green energy, with the vice president being a strong advocate for sustainable energy sources.
Investing in real estate was also highlighted; Harris’ housing policy involves $100 million in community grants to boost construction across the U.S.
Wang said: “Harris could be seen as a continuation of what Biden has been doing. Her policies are generally viewed as benefiting the average American much better, with the bolstering of the Affordable Care Act, increasing lots of housing buildouts and passing less tariffs.”
Key players in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, such as Nvidia, were pointed out as “ones to watch” in the coming months to see how the industry and the broader stock market would respond to the results on Election Day.
Wang also noted that suppliers down the line were also important to monitor, especially with international providers set to face higher tariffs from a potential Trump administration.
“Everyone thinks about Nvidia, but there are a couple of others in terms of the chip suppliers and the technology suppliers,” he said. “A big one recently is ASML (Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography), and then there’s TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).”
With both of these top tech suppliers based outside the U.S., higher tariffs could squeeze supply chains for the rapidly growing AI sector.
