Bitcoin’s classification as a so-called Trump trade is starting to jar with wider shifts in global markets attributed in part to the possibility of the former president’s return to the White House.
Bond yields and the dollar have jumped lately amid Republican nominee Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in prediction markets. On one view, investors are curbing bets on looser monetary policy as Trump will apply a pro-growth agenda to an already robust US economy if he wins on Nov. 5.
Bitcoin and stocks have wavered alongside this relative tightening in financial conditions, leaving the token facing its first weekly loss in three. Trump embraced the digital-asset industry during his campaign, lifting crypto sentiment, but the question arises whether the impact of his wider priorities may temper such optimism.
“Absolutely, yes, the selloff in stocks, higher US dollar and higher yields all equal a tightening in financial conditions,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty. “Not good for crypto at the pointy end of the spectrum. Some will point out that financial conditions were loose to start with, but it’s more the speed that the tightening is playing out.”
Bitcoin advanced about 1% to $67,416 as of 9:11 a.m. in New York on Thursday, paring its weekly decline to roughly 2%. The largest digital asset has risen some 60% this year and reached a record high of $73,798 in March, buttressed by demand for US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
Trump has vowed to make the US the crypto capital of the planet as he duels for votes with Democratic candidate Harris, who has adopted a more measured approach by pledging to support a regulatory framework for the industry. Their positions contrast with a crackdown on the sector under President Joe Biden.
The candidates are statistically tied among likely voters in each of the seven US swing states in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll. The razor-thin margins in these battlegrounds underscore how a final blitz of advertising, rallies and door-knocking campaigns could decide who claims the White House.
If Trump emerges victorious, that may lead to higher yields and ultimately a “negative impact for risk assets,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a provider of liquidity for trading in digital-asset derivatives. Still, “the expected regulatory softening of a Trump administration toward the crypto industry should still be the more important factor,” she said.
