Bitcoin’s price has experienced mounting sell-side pressure, causing it to shed more than 5.5% over the last seven days and setting a six-week low at $58,400 on June 25. During this sell-off, BTC dropped below its short-term cost basis, risking a deeper correction, according to market intelligence firm Glassnode.
“Since mid-June, the spot price has plunged below the cost basis of both the 1w-1m holders($68.5k) and 1m-3m holders ($66.4k),” Glassnode wrote in its “Week On-chain” newsletter published on June 25.
“If this structure persists, it has historically resulted in a deterioration of investor confidence, and risks this correction being deeper and taking longer to recover from.”
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Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) cost basis — or realized price — is a metric that represents the average acquisition price of BTC for investors who are considered short-term holders, typically defined by the movement of coins that have been held for less than 155 days.
Data from LookIntoBitcoin reveals that BTC’s breach of the $64,000 level on June 23 saw it fall below the STH realized price at the time, which was $64,591.
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In addition, the latest drawdown was inches away from pulling the price below the cost basis of the 3m–6m holders at $57,300, which remains on the rise, even as the price falls.
The report also highlights that the cost basis of the 1w-1m holders has plunged below the 1m–3m cost basis, signaling “a diminishing momentum in the demand side, and a net capital outflow from the asset.”
“During previous bull markets, a negative capital flow structure has occurred up to five times. We can also see that this structure has been in play since May and into early June.”
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs see an uptick in inflows
On June 25, the 10 United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw minor inflows totaling $31 million and ended a seven-day streak of outflows.
Data from SoSo Value reveals that on June 25, Fidelity’s ETF FBTC led net inflows with $49 million, followed by the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF BITB with $15 million in inflows, and the VanEck Bitcoin Trust ETF HODL came in third with $4 million in net inflows.
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On the other hand, the Grayscale ETF GBTC had a single-day outflow of $30.2 million, while the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF reported $6 million in net outflows.
As of June 25, the 10 spot Bitcoin funds that began trading on Jan. 11 have seen net inflows of $14.42 billion, with more than $53.56 assets under management.
The massive outflows the spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed over the last few weeks are the highest since April, when they posted total net outflows exceeding $1.2 billion between April 24 and the beginning of May.