Bitcoin is quietly copying a key feature from the 2016 bull market, which kicks in at $75,000.
In a post on X on May 24, popular trader Jelle eyed what could become the next “main breakout” for BTC price action.
Trader: BTC price “incredibly similar to early 2017”
Bitcoin analysis often points to similarities between the current bull cycle and those gone by — notably the two most recent: 2016–2017 and 2020–2021.
While 2024 has differentiated itself in producing a new all-time high before, not after a block subsidy halving, there is still plenty of data suggesting that Bitcoin’s steepest gains are still ahead.
For Jelle, the relative strength index (RSI) is a major conducive factor.
RSI captures the extent to which an asset is overbought or oversold at a given level, and on weekly timeframes, BTC/USD is painting an exciting picture.
“Bitcoin is playing out incredibly similar to early 2017,” Jelle summarized.
An accompanying chart compared BTC/USD performance on the way to its 2017 peak of $20,000 to its journey from January 2023 to now.
Today, as seven years ago, RSI is declining, while price is accelerating toward previous highs.
“A hidden bullish divergence and choppy waters right around the previous all-time highs — before the main breakout,” Jelle explained.
“Clear $75,000, and this accelerates quickly.”
BTC/USD chart with RSI data. Source: Jelle/X
Historically, Bitcoin tends to put in its most strident upside when RSI is in the “overbought” zone above 70. Such readings can endure for a considerable length of time before the BTC price rally becomes unsustainable.
Room for a return to $60,000 Bitcoin?
As Cointelegraph reported, opinions are mixed as to what Bitcoin will do in the short term.
The announcement of preliminary approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, in the United States this week did little to shore up the performance of either coin.
Still rangebound, BTC/USD is fielding calls for a return to $60,000 or even lower. Among those predicting that outcome are popular trader Credible Crypto and Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading.
“Bitcoin is consolidating, and it’s within the range,” the latter wrote in one of his latest X posts.
“Probably that consolidation will be taking place for a longer period and I suspect we might see $61-63K even.”
BTC/USD chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Van de Poppe added that liquidity was in “rotation” from Bitcoin to Ether around the ETF launch but described the situation as “fine.”
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