Bitcoin is replicating the same path as it did after the 2016 Bitcoin halving event, with one indicator signaling it may be nearing its local bottom and another indicating it reaching $350,000 during “the peak” of this cycle, according to crypto traders.
“Bitcoin has repeated 2016 history perfectly, offering a downside wick below the bottom of its current re-accumulation range within a three-week window after the Halving,” pseudonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital declared in a May 11 post on X.
Rekt indicates that the re-accumulation range at this point of the cycle is any price below $61,081— which Bitcoin is currently trading below that at $60,901, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Furthermore, Rekt highlighted Bitcoin is currently in the “last pre-halving retrace” stage, which, once it passed in 2016, saw a 48% spike just six months later on Dec. 30, to $973.
However, the price drawdown from all-time high (ATH) chart — which measures the decline from Bitcoin’s peak to its lowest point over a specific time frame — suggests a much more ambitious price, according to founder and investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors Timothy Peterson.
Referencing the chart, Peterson estimates that Bitcoin’s current price may rise nearly sixfold by the beginning of 2025.
“Based on adoption and prior drawdowns, we can guesstimate that the peak value of this cycle would be between $175,000 – $350,000 in the next 9 months,” he explained in a May 11 post on X.
“Based on history, we can say that this bull market will end in January 2025,” Peterson added.
Meanwhile, the daily 100 moving average — a key technical indicator for predicting long-term Bitcoin price trends measured by adding up the past 100 days and dividing the total by 100 — signals that Bitcoin’s price may be “hovering around” its local bottom, according to pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto traders.
In a May 11 post, they emphasized the key zone by drawing parallels to a comparable formation seen after the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in January. Just a month later, its price rose by 32% to $51,730 on Feb. 25.
“Support until it isn’t, but bulls need to put in some work,” they added.
