The potential return of more than $9 billion worth of Mt. Gox-era Bitcoin over the next few weeks might “spook the market” and put negative price pressure on Bitcoin, according to K33 Research analysts.
Earlier this week on Reddit, some creditors of the failed Mt. Gox crypto exchange reported seeing updates on their claims, with many interpreting it to mean that crypto payments could soon be coming.
The updates included how much cryptocurrency and fiat were owed to creditors as well as completed repayment dates.
The new updates could mean creditors might start seeing Bitcoin returned as soon as next month — assuming it follows a similar repayment schedule for fiat in March, K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde wrote in an April 23 market note.
Over $9.4 billion in Bitcoin and $72 million in Bitcoin Cash is owed to Mt. Gox’s 127,000 creditors, along with $445.8 million (69 billion Japanese yen).
“Mt. Gox coins could become a relevant negative price contributor in the next weeks,” said Helseth and Lunde.
While the release of Bitcoin may not necessarily equate to selling pressure, the “overhang” of 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH could still “spook the market,” they added.
Bitcoin is currently trading at just over $66,700, though recent volatility has been attributed to changing tensions in the Middle East and the Bitcoin halving on April 20.
Mt. Gox creditors have been waiting on the return of their funds for more than 10 years after the exchange collapsed in February 2014 when it succumbed to a series of hacks that went unnoticed for years.
In January, the Mt. Gox trustee began reaching out to creditors to confirm their identity and their crypto exchange accounts used to repay their owed Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
Meanwhile, reports in December last year showed that some creditors had already started to receive Japanese yen repayments. More creditors reported receiving further fiat transfers in March, the K33 report noted.
Mt. Gox has a final repayment deadline of Oct. 31, 2024, for base repayments, early lump-sum repayments and intermediate repayments, though this can still be subject to change.
