Bitcoin halts four day slide as CPI comes in better than expected

Spurred by better-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, Bitcoin saw a 1.6% increase in the 13:30 (BST) 30-minute candle to close at $28,197. The move was accompanied by high volume to break a four-day slide for the leading cryptocurrency.

Wider macro factors weigh heavy with Bitcoin uncertainty

Since breaking below $30,000 on April 17, BTC found support at $27,000 on April 24. It has since been ranging between $27,280 and $30,050 – with both limits showing strong support and resistance, as signified by multiple touches at the respective bands. Having been rejected at $29,940 resistance on May 6, BTC closed consecutive red daily candles over a four-day period – losing 8% during this time frame. The current macroeconomic narrative is focused on the $31 trillion debt ceiling and whether the U.S. will default if a bipartisan agreement cannot be thrashed out. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that the administration will run out of money by June 1, if a deal cannot be struck. Meanwhile, the Fed’s rate hike program looks to be having the desired effect, at least against month-over-month expectations. On May 3, the central bank raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the Federal Funds Rate to 5.00% – 5.25%. The next FOMC meeting will conclude on June 14, with markets currently 87% in favor of no hike – likely in acknowledgment of ongoing banking weaknesses witnessed in recent weeks.

CPI data

CPI rose 4.9% in April, coming in less than the expected 5% rate. Nonetheless, Core CPI grew 0.4% in April versus expectations of a 0.4% increase. This brings year-over-year Core CPI to 5.5% – unchanged compared to April last year. Like CPI, Core CPI also tracks the price of goods and services but differs by way of excluding food and energy prices – which are said to be too volatile to include. Central banks use Core CPI, not CPI, to inform policy. Meanwhile, throughout this period of uncertainty, Bitcoin has held firm – even showing fleeting signs of safe haven qualities during the banking crisis. For now, it’s all eyes on June 14 as the market awaits the Fed’s assessment – with many holding out for a pause, which could lead to a pivot.