COMPARED TO THE previous year, the prices of meat, poultry, fish and eggs were up 10% in May 2020, according to the Consumer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that’s the largest 12-month increase in those prices since 2004. It’s not all bad news though.
“I actually think we’re on the downward slope of price increases,” says Trey Malone, a Michigan State University assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics. Now that the supply chain has adjusted to some of the changes brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, prices should begin to normalize.
However, consumers may still have experienced sticker shock when buying the following items in May:
- Beef.
- Eggs.
- Whole chickens.
- Sugar and sugar substitutes.
- Tomatoes.
- Potatoes.
- Pork chops.
- Cheese.
- Milk.
- White bread.
As prices have changed, so too have shopper habits, says Andy Ellwood, co-owner and president of Basket, an app that allows shoppers to input a shopping list and see how much it would cost to buy the items at various nearby stores. Data from Basket shows that not only are price-conscious customers looking for less expensive items, but they are also changing up their shopping habits in order to limit how many stores they visit. “People are willing to swap products to go to one store,” according to Ellwood.
Here’s a closer look at the grocery items that have been getting more expensive along with some cheaper options to try instead.
Beef
12-month price increase: 18.2%
Substitute: Plant-based proteins
Among all meat products, beef has experienced the greatest price increase in recent months. In May, consumer costs for beef in general were up 18.2% from the previous year, while beef roast prices were up an eye-popping 26.9%. From April to May alone, the price of beef roasts when up 19.5%, while steaks cost 11.6% more and ground beef saw a 7.2% increase.
Given rising beef costs, it may be more economical to think outside the box when it comes to main dishes. “I cooked a cauliflower steak last week, and it was fantastic,” Ellwood says. However, if you can’t bear to give up meat for your main course, consider a plant-based protein such as Beyond Burger that replicates the taste and texture of beef with ingredients such as rice, beans and oil. Prices for plant-based protein products have dropped as much as 16% lately, according to Aimee Becker, senior vice president of strategy advisory at Daymon, a global private brand consultant.
Pork Chops
12-month price increase: 14%
Substitute: Boneless chicken breasts
In April, a number of meat processing plants temporarily slowed down or stopped work to contain COVID-19 outbreaks among employees. “It’s finally showing up in the supply chain,” Ellwood says. That resulted in pork chop prices that rose 14% in May 2020 compared to the year before. From April to May alone, their cost jumped 8.4%.
For a white meat alternative, look for fresh or frozen boneless, skinless chicken breasts. Chicken parts had a much lower increase of 1.8% from April to May, although their cost is up 7.7% for the year. However, store brand or private label packages may be less expensive than national brand names.
Eggs
12-month price increase: 13.5%
Substitute: Applesauce, silken tofu
Egg prices skyrocketed as states began shutting down. “We went from 50 cents to $2.50 (per dozen) at the wholesale level,” Malone says. That price jump had less to do with how many eggs people were eating and more to do with where people were eating them. Once restaurants shut down, egg sales shifted from commercial buyers to consumers. However, due to government regulations, Malone says companies couldn’t simply repack eggs from commercial orders for supermarket sales.
Malone notes the cost of eggs during the pandemic “tells a very interesting story.” Eggs demonstrate how price fluctuations can be driven by factors outside the availability of food itself. Once government restrictions loosened to allow eggs to be redistributed from food service warehouses, prices began dropping, and the Midwest wholesale price was down to 65 cents per dozen as of mid-June. However, if you’re still looking for a low-cost substitute, applesauce or silken tofu may be appropriate for some baking and cooking uses.
Whole Chicken
12-month price increase: 9.6%
Substitute: Chicken parts
Not only have whole chickens gotten more expensive, but they have been hard to find in some markets. Chicken parts may be less expensive, although even those cost 7.7% more in May 2020 compared to a year ago. To maximize cost savings, consider skipping the fresh meat case and looking for frozen, store brand items instead.
“As consumers search for viable alternatives to fresh meat, one area they should consider is temporarily moving to frozen meat and poultry,” Becker says. “Private brand frozen chicken breasts have not only gone down in price, but they also offer nearly 50 cents per pound savings vs. national brands.”
Sugar and Sugar Substitutes
12-month price increase: 9%
Substitute: Use less
When analyzing data from Basket users, Ellwood says he was surprised to see increasing prices for honey, sugars, nectars and similar products. The 9% jump in sugar prices may not be pandemic-related though. A spate of bad weather in 2019 was already threatening to cause a sugar shortage in 2020.
Since both sugar and sugar substitutes seem to be subject to rising costs, a more economical option may be to simply reduce the amount of sugar used in recipes or as a topping. “With sugar, there is always an opportunity to use less,” Ellwood says. Many times, adjustments can be made with minimal effect on taste.
Tomatoes
12-month price increase: 8.8%
Substitute: Canned tomatoes
Summer salads often feature fresh tomatoes, but those have been more expensive this year. Prices for tomatoes were up 8.8% in May compared to the year before. However, canned vegetables – including tomatoes, saw only a 2.1% increase, so they may be a less-expensive option for cooking. If nothing but fresh tomatoes will do, you may find them cheaper at farmers markets this year as farmers look to sell off excess crops that normally would have gone to restaurants.
Potatoes
12-month price increase: 8.7%
Substitute: Rice
Potatoes have seen prices fluctuate significantly as the market adjusts to changes in demand. With many potatoes destined to become french fries, some processors dropped their orders as restaurants across the nation closed. By May, potato prices were up 8.7% compared to the previous year. Prices seem to be stabilizing, but for now, rice may be a cheaper starch to use as a side dish for meals at home.
Cheese
12-month price increase: 7%
Substitute: Store brands
Cheese prices have varied wildly during the pandemic, and Malone speculates cost trends may be regional based on factors such as the ability of dairy processors to shift from commercial to consumer products. Nationally, the Consumer Price Index reflected a 7% increase in cheese prices from the previous 12 months.
It can be hard to substitute other items for cheese, although silken tofu may stand in for some soft cheeses – such as ricotta – when cooking. However, buying store brand cheeses can be a way to save.
Milk
12-month price increase: 5.4%
Substitute: Dry milk, yogurt, water
As with other dairy products, milk prices have increased not from a lack of raw material but from supply chain issues. “As soon as you closed the schools, you eliminated a massive institutional buyer for dairy milk,” Malone says. That, along with the closure of restaurants, left processors scrambling to move their operations from commercial to consumer products.
Milk prices were up 5.4% in May from the year before. To reduce your costs, consider using dry milk or plain yogurt for baking. For drinking, nothing is cheaper than water from the tap, assuming you have a safe and clean local water system.
White Bread
12-month price increase: 4.3%
Substitute: Whole wheat bread
Overall, cereal and bakery products have only seen price increases of 2.6% from May 2019 to May 2020. However, white bread prices have gone up more steeply. The easiest way to save money on bread may be to move to a whole wheat variety. The price of nonwhite bread has risen only 2.7% compared to the 4.3% increase in the cost of white bread.
