A surging stock market may not need a catalyst — but it’s getting one

With the Dow (^DJI) touching 40,000 and the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) near new records as well, investors might be looking for the next catalyst to continue to juice the rally. Just in time, chipmaking juggernaut Nvidia comes a-calling. The company’s report is way at the end of the regular earnings season — nearly a month after Meta’s. And Nvidia’s results have only grown in importance as the company’s value has ballooned. Its market cap is $2.3 trillion, and it’s now the third-weightiest stock in the S&P 500 behind Microsoft and Apple. In what might be termed the Nvidia-verse, a whole host of semiconductor companies that either compete with or service Nvidia rise or fall with its shares. Speaking of its shares, their performance has left the other so-called Magnificent Seven stocks in the dust this year. (I know, I know, we’re not even calling them that anymore.) But after climbing an eye-watering 240% last year, Nvidia is on its way to doubling again thus far in 2024, making it the third-best gainer in the S&P 500. (It’s behind Super Micro, another AI play, and Vistra, a power provider also riding the AI demand wave.) So the pressure, once again, is on. While another big beat might push stocks up, a miss could do the opposite. And analysts, by and large, think Nvidia can meet or beat those lofty expectations. Revenue is forecast to have grown by 242% last quarter— and that follows three quarters of triple-digit percentage year-over-year sales increases. Taking a step back, Piper Sandler’s Harsh Kumar pointed out in an earnings preview note that data center chips and software — largely fueled by the demand for AI training — accounted for 83% of revenues last quarter. Five years ago, Nvidia’s market cap was under $100 billion and it was primarily known for making video game chips before catching the crypto-mining wave (a walk down memory lane prompted by my co-anchor Josh Lipton). The transformation has been extraordinary. And it was even our Company of the Year in 2016. This quarter may not blow expectations out of the water, especially considering how much the stock has rallied. Kumar writes that even if the company’s revenue beats by $1.9 billion — following the trend of recent quarters — the stock will be “flat to up.” Citi’s Atif Malik writes, “We expect smaller beats vs. the prior few quarters on larger numbers.” But it’s John Vinh of KeyBanc who really got my attention with yet another huge number. He expects data center revenue to climb to $200 billion in calendar 2025. That would represent a 321% increase over 2023. Let’s put in perspective how unusual it is for a company this large to grow by that much. Tesla sales rose by 387% in 2013 — to just over $2 billion. Amazon hasn’t seen triple-digit growth since 1998, when revenue grew by 313% to $610 million. In other words, Nvidia’s size relative to growth is nearly without precedent. That’s why, as the stock keeps climbing, investors keep asking, “How long can this last?”