Another month, another sharp drop in the feelings of American consumers.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 7.9% in April to a reading of 86. While the present situation index fell only slightly by 0.9 points, the expectations index that measures how consumers feel about the future dropped 12.5 points to 54.4. That is the lowest level since October 2011 and puts sentiment well below the 80 level that usually signals an impending recession.
“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at the business organization, said in an analysis. “The three expectation components – business conditions, employment prospects, and future income – all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future. Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession.”
“In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations,” Guichard added. “However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”
The decline was broad-based, whether measured by age, income and even political affiliation. However, “the decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year,” Guichard added.
The cutoff for the survey was April 21, nearly three weeks after Trump announced sweeping tariffs on many countries and imported products. That was quickly postponed for 90 days following a massive sell-off in the stock market and instability in the bond market. But, clearly, 401(k)s and IRAs dropping sharply played a part in the downward direction of consumer confidence.
“Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy,” the board noted. “Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy: while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in the prices of gas and some food items. There were also numerous mentions of stock prices and uncertainty.”
The report comes as President Donald Trump celebrates his 100th day in the White House with a rally planned for later Tuesday in Michigan. And it appears as many polls show growing dissatisfaction with his agenda, especially the imposition of widespread import tariffs that have been rolled out only to be substantially delayed or reversed.
An NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll released Tuesday found that 53% of Americans disapprove of how Trump is doing his job, up from 49% in March, with 55% of respondents having a negative view of how he is dealing with the economy. On the issue of tariffs, 58% voiced disapproval.
“The implementation of larger-than-expected tariffs in 2025 has significantly altered the economic landscape, leading both the Federal Reserve and private forecasters to sharply revise downward their projections for U.S. economic growth,” Mark Vitner, chief economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital, wrote on Tuesday. “The tariffs, which are broader and more enduring than initially anticipated, are expected to disrupt both U.S. and global economic growth. The cumulative effect of all tariffs enacted in 2025 is projected to reduce U.S. real GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2025 from what it otherwise would have been.”
Separately, home prices rose at an annual pace of 3.9% in March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-city national index. That was down from the 4.1% rate of February.
New York continued to post the highest annual gain among 20 cities, with a 7.7% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 7.0% and 6.6%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, with prices declining at a 1.5% annual rate.
“The spring selling season is here, and inventory is well above year-ago levels, offering buyers plenty of options in many areas,” said Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com. “However, high housing costs and widespread economic uncertainty have curbed buyer enthusiasm. Recent data shows that concerns about job security have increased, which could make both buyers and sellers more hesitant to enter the housing market until the outlook for the economy and job market becomes clearer.”
And the Labor Department said Tuesday there was little change in the number of open jobs in March, with 7.2 million openings, but that was down by 901,000 from a year earlier. The labor market is showing some signs of weakening, but the latest employment data for April out Friday is still expected to show gains of about 130,000 jobs.
