J.P. Morgan sees the price of Brent oil averaging $73 per barrel (/bbl) in 2025 and expects it to close the year firmly below $70/bbl, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $64/bbl, the bank said in a note on Friday.
“Our view on 2025 has remained largely unchanged over the past year: we look for a large 1.3 mbd (million barrels per day)surplus and an average Brent of $73,” the note said.
The bank sees global oil demand growth decelerating from 1.3 mbd this year to 1.1 mbd next year, adding that China is expected to lead oil demand growth for the last time before India takes the lead in 2026.
J.P. Morgan also said that large surpluses will drive Brent prices below $60 by the end of 2026, with an average Brent forecast of $61/bbl and $57/bbl for West Texas Intermediate oil.
It added that these forecasts assume that OPEC+ keeps its current production levels.
Brent crude futures were trading near $74.56 a barrel on Friday, while U.S. WTI crude futures were at $70.37 per barrel.
Weak oil supply-demand fundamentals might help U.S. President-elect Donald Trump keep his promise to bring down oil prices, the bank noted.
“Trump’s energy agenda presents downside risks to oil prices from deregulation and increased U.S. production, while also posing upside risks by exerting pressure on Iran, Venezuela, and possibly Russia to limit their oil exports and revenues.”