Bitcoin realized price rejections hint BTC price ‘weakening’ — Analyst

Bitcoin BTC$63,662.38 faces potential selling pressure as the dollar value of hodlers’ BTC exposure falls by billions of dollars. New research by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows speculators stepping in while seasoned hodlers go risk-off on BTC.

Bitcoin hodlers “likely taking profits”

Amid continued enthusiasm over a return to all-time highs for BTC/USD, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are taking no risks. Analyzing the net position change of LTH entities, defined as those hodling a given amount of BTC for 155 days or more, CryptoQuant revealed a “sharp decrease” in their BTC exposure. “There has been a recent sharp decrease of $6 billion (from $19 billion to $12 billion) in the LTH realized cap (blue), suggesting that long-term holders are likely taking profits or closing buying positions,” contributor Amr Taha commented alongside an illustrative chart in one of the platform’s Quicktake blog posts. The chart shows the net change in the LTH realized cap — the sum price at which LTH coins last moved. Short-term holders (STHs), meanwhile, are taking a markedly different approach to the market. These speculators—entities holding BTC for up to 155 days—are busy increasing their stake. “Conversely, the STH realized cap (orange) has seen a recent sharp increase of $6 billion, moving from -$17 billion to -$11 billion, indicating that short-term holders are likely taking on more risk or increasing their buying positions,” Taha continued.

BTC price momentum gets warning

Additional findings confirmed close interaction between the realized price of all BTC moving between one day and one week ago — the “hottest” part of the BTC supply — and the Bitcoin spot price. The one-day to one-week realized price was $62,080 at the time of writing, practically identical to spot BTC/USD. “The multiple interactions between the price and the realized price in a relatively short time frame suggest that traders are paying close attention to this level,” Taha concluded.

“These rejections could imply that momentum is weakening after these price attempts to stay above the realized price, potentially leading to short-term corrections.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a recent spate of exchange withdrawals, which became Bitcoin’s biggest since November 2022, near the pit of its last bear market.