A long-awaited United States Federal Reserve interest rate cut could push the price of Bitcoin down — the opposite direction of many market participants’ expectations — and possibly cause it to dive to levels not seen since February, analysts say.
“If we were to speculate, we would caution to expect a 15-20 percent decline when rates are cut this month, with a bottom of $40-50k for BTC,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in a Sept. 2 note.
Bitfinex’s analysts backed up their claims by reiterating that September has historically been a “volatile month” for Bitcoin, and the anticipated Fed rate cut only adds another “layer of complexity, potentially exacerbating the market’s volatility.”
“This logic could be negated quite easily if macroeconomic conditions change.”
“These are uncertain times for traders,” the note added. The Fed interest rate decision is scheduled to take place on Sept. 18, and the market sentiment is optimistic that it will lower rates after dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in August saying that “the time has come.”
Investors often view perceived riskier assets like Bitcoin as more attractive when interest rates are cut, as traditional assets like bonds and term deposits become less lucrative.
Bitcoin traded at $57,754 at the time of publication, down 2.67% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
A 20% drop from its current price will place it around $46,000, which it last traded at on Feb. 8. It’s also a level that 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said is the point Bitcoin needs to reach before a bull run begins.
Thielen said in early August, “To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s.”
The Bitcoin Layer analyst Joe Consorti wrote in a Sept. 3 X post that “$60,000 is no longer a blow-off top level dominated by speculators, it is a consolidation zone where long-term, mature holders accumulate and HODL.”
Meanwhile, crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades opined that Bitcoin is “still fighting around its Bull Market Support Band.”
“Doesn’t seem to want to move away from it to either side at this point,” he added.