Asia shares muted on China data, euro on defensive

Asian share markets were in the red on Monday as mixed Chinese economic news underlined the country’s bumpy recovery, while political uncertainty in Europe soured risk appetites and kept the euro on the defensive. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300), opens new tab were off 0.2% after retail sales topped forecasts by rising 3.7% in May, but industrial output and fixed-asset investment both underwhelmed. Other data showed home prices fell at the fastest pace in a decade in May, highlighting the continued strains in the property sector. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its one-year rate unchanged, dashing some speculation of a cut following surprisingly soft bank lending data. China’s official Financial News on Monday reported there was still room to lower rates, but there were internal and external constraints on policy. That made for cautious trading, and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab eased 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225), opens new tab slipped 1.9%, with investors now facing a six-week wait to hear details of the Bank of Japan’s next tightening steps. EUROSTOXX 50 futures bounced 0.3% after last week’s steep losses, while FTSE futures edged up 0.4%. S&P 500 futures were steady, while Nasdaq futures added 0.1% following a run of record finishes. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,600, from 5,200 and the current 5,431. “Our 2024 and 2025 earnings estimates remain unchanged but stellar earnings growth by five mega-cap tech stocks have offset the typical pattern of negative revisions to consensus EPS estimates,” they wrote in a note. The main U.S. data of the week will be retail sales for May on Tuesday, where a 0.4% bounce is expected after a 0.3% drop in April, while markets have a holiday on Wednesday. At least 10 policymakers from the Federal Reserve are due to speak this week and will no doubt address the market’s wagers for two rate cuts this year.