Technology company Nvidia’s (NVDA) outperformance of Bitcoin over the past ten years should not be used as an indicator for the next decade, as it is unlikely to happen again, according to crypto executives.
“Near zero chance of Nvidia outperforming Bitcoin over the next 10 years,” argued Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten in a May 24 X post.
“I’d pick Bitcoin over Nvidia for the next ten years, personally,” investment strategist Lyn Alden stated, after pointing out on X that NVDA “is one of the few assets that has outperformed Bitcoin over a 10-year time period.”
Between May 23, 2014, and May 23, 2024, Nvidia (NVDA) — which produces chips companies use to train and deploy artificial intelligence (AI) models — has returned 21,558% and Bitcoin has returned 13,048%, according to Statmuse data.
Over the past three months, since the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Jan. 10, Bitcoin has returned slightly better gains than Nvidia, with returns of 31.7% and 30.2% respectively.
Meanwhile, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that a $10,000 investment in Nvidia stock in 1999 is “worth $25.3 million today,” in a May 24 X post.
Daniel Sempere Pico questioned whether Nvidia might have been considered an even “riskier” investment back in 2014, when both Bitcoin and AI had less widespread adoption.
“Don’t know if the whole AI thing could have been predicted by anyone back in 2014, but there were some people who could already see Bitcoin’s potential,” Pico explained.
“If we were to go back to 2014, I wonder which one we’d think is more risky and less obvious to achieve such incredible returns,” he added.
However, co-founder of 21st.capital who goes by the name “Sina” on X, argued that financial assets generally have a broader domino effect than AI as more people begin to use them.
“There are no network effects in AI. There are multiple layers of network effects in money,” argued in a May 24 post.
While optimistic predictions exist for Bitcoin’s performance in the next 24 months, there are also warnings of a significant correction.
On March 4, Cointelegraph reported that former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi, using his “Power Law” model, predicts that Bitcoin could reach a peak of $210,000 in January 2026 and then fall as low as $60,000 afterward.