Consumer credit card spending came to a halt in March, surprising experts who had expected a steady increase. The total outstanding revolving credit rose by a mere 0.1%, a stark contrast to the consistent 5% monthly rises observed since the pandemic began.
The Federal Reserve reported that revolving credit rose by $152 million in March, marking the smallest increase since credit card debt declined in 2021. This figure is notably lower than February’s $14.12 billion increase, nearly a hundred times as much as the March figure.
Economists had expected a $15 billion increase for March. What went wrong? Part of the issue lies in a baseline problem, with credit reaching higher levels in February than initially reported. The Fed’s initial report indicated a $11.2 billion increase for that month, still placing revolving credit at an all-time high. The higher figure released this week caused the percentage increase for March to be lower than initially anticipated.
Factors Slowing Credit Increases
Higher interest rates are likely a factor. The average interest rate for a credit card reached 21.59% in February, its highest since the Fed began keeping track of rates in 1994. But, that should have already been factored into the estimates.
The expert error doesn’t seem to have come about because Americans were spending less. An earlier report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, released at the end of April, found that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $160.9 billion in March, a rise of 0.8%. On a percentage basis, that matched the rise in PCE from February.
A Spike in Income
That same report showed a significant increase in income. Personal income rose by $122.0 billion in March, representing a 0.5% monthly rate of increase. Disposable personal income, which is personal income minus personal current taxes, increased $104.0 billion.
In February, disposable personal income had risen by just $49.7 billion. This means Americans had an additional, unexpected $50 billion in income to play with in March. Real personal income minus transfer receipts—which include such things as retirement and unemployment benefits—is currently at an all-time high.
Was that a factor in the nation incurring so much less credit card debt? We’ll gain further insights in early June when the Fed releases its next report on consumer credit. The report will hopefully provide a clearer picture of the sustainability of this trend.