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The U.S. oil surge is set to take a breather this year

Analysts see U.S. oil output growth slowing down this year. Why it matters: The U.S. is by far the world’s largest producer and a major exporter, which influences global market balances and prices. The big picture: Production grew by roughly 1.8 million barrels per day over the past couple of years, Energy Department data shows. How it works: “Offsetting base declines gets increasingly difficult at higher production levels, resulting in more production needed just to keep production flat,” Woodmac’s Utkarsh Gupta said in the note. What’s next: Woodmac, looking at Lower 48 states onshore production, sees much lower growth this year and beyond. What they’re saying: “The ease in growth has gone, unless somebody comes up with a very dramatic new technical innovation,” said Paul Horsnell, head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Bank, tells the Wall Street Journal, in a piece on the shale boom. Reality check: Getting these look-aheads right is always dicey. The bottom line: U.S. production remains around all-time highs, but 2024 could be something of a gap year when it comes to growth.
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