The nation’s top economic policymaker acknowledged that inflationary pressures are impacting everyday Americans, but doubled down on his view that the hot pace of price increases should abate in time.
“We understand the difficulties that high inflation poses for individuals and families, particularly those with limited means to absorb higher prices for essentials such as food and transportation,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference Wednesday.
Americans have been feeling the impact of rising prices as of late. The Consumer Price Index showed prices rising 5.4% on a year-over-year basis in September (the fastest reading since 2008).
But Powell leaned again on the explanation of these pressures as “transitory,” pointing to pandemic-induced materials and labor shortages that have constrained supply chains globally.
The Fed chief said those bottlenecks should persist into next year, stressing that if it appears that inflation will persist even after those COVID-related factors fade, the central bank can raise interest rates.
Compared to messaging in the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September, the policy-setting arm of the central bank appears to be taking seriously the risk of persistent inflation. It tweaked its language in its policy statement to note that inflationary pressures are not “transitory” but “expected to be transitory.”
Powell said the change was made “to show uncertainty around that.”
Interest rates near zero
In its policy announcement Wednesday, the FOMC unanimously voted to hold interest rates at near zero but begin the process of tapering its asset purchases.
Since the depths of the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $120 billion per month in U.S. Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to signal its support of the economy. But starting this month, the Fed will slow those aggregate purchases by $15 billion per month.
“We are prepared to speed up or slow down the pace of reductions in asset purchases, if it’s warranted by changes in the economic outlook,” Powell told the press.
But the tapering program, which marks the first major step in the Fed unwinding its pandemic-era easy money policies, has revved up chatter about when the central bank could eventually tap into its primary tool of levering short-term interest rates.
Powell made it clear that while it could deploy a rate hike to quell inflation, his focus will be on letting the labor market heal.
There are still over 5 million workers out of the labor force compared to pre-pandemic levels, which Powell remained optimistic about fixing. The challenge: jobs data as of late have missed expectations for a more vigorous labor market recovery.
Powell suggested his deference is to give workers and hiring firms more time to plug the shortfall.
“Ideally we would see further development of the labor market in a context where there isn’t another COVID spike, and then we would be able to see how does participation react in that post-COVID world,” Powell said.
The next jobs report, covering the month of October, is due on Friday. The central bank’s next policy-setting announcement is scheduled to take place on Dec. 14 and 15.