Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) chances of falling below $10,000 have increased significantly since mid-April, according to betting aggregators US-Bookies.com.
The odds that Bitcoin drops to $10,000 in 2021 were 8/11 (57.9% implied probability), a sharp increase from mid-April, where the odds were 4/1 (20%).
“The latest trends have not indicated a positive outcome for the popular cryptocurrency,” a US-Bookies spokesperson said. Bitcoin rose over $2,000 Thursday after the Basel Committee recognized it as an asset class, but fell back down later in the day.
“There are many factors that affect trader sentiment,” the spokesperson said. “But the most significant appear to be US monetary policy and the impact of pressure from mainland China.”
China’s Qinghai province took an aggressive stance against crypto Wednesday by ordering all crypto miners to shut down. The region, which was a hub of mining activity, is the latest of several East Asian regions, including Xinjiang Inner Mongolia, to ban the practice.
Financial sector analysts have identified Bitcoin’s reduced market share as a crucial detail supporting bearish attitudes. The virtual currency now represents about 40% of the crypto market, down from 70%.
It should be noted, the spokesperson said, that the market for betting on bitcoin is “very small and extends to a handful of jurisdictions globally where sportsbook betting on bitcoin is legal, like Europe.” Betting on bitcoin is illegal within the United States.
The data came as little surprise to US-Bookies, as bitcoin’s predicted gloomy future is within the context of a broader market correction. “Cryptocurrency investors should be aware of the asset classes’ volatility and these odds are aligned with the sharp correction in the market of late,” the spokesperson said.