What’s next if Cape Town becomes the first major city to run out of water?

Residents queue to fill containers with water from a source of natural spring water in Cape Town, South Africa

If you live in the South African city of Cape Town, you can’t get away from the fear of “Day Zero.”

Residents have been forced to think about how they will flush toilets, shower or even drink water in the days and months ahead—all coming to a climax in April when Cape Town may have to shut off its taps, becoming the first major city in the world to run out of water.

The average American uses 88 gallons of water per day. Those in Cape Town, a top international tourist destination, have had theirs limited to 13.2 gallons in hopes to keep the water flowing just a little longer. The rich are digging boreholes — private wells to reach water in the aquifer. The poor are waiting in lines daily to fill up water containers. Businesses are worried they might have to close.

How did this happen?

The severe drought in the South African city didn’t happen overnight, though. More than half of the the city’s water comes from a reservoir at the Theewaterskloof dam, but water levels have dropped severely due to low rainfall over the last three years.

Images from NASA show the stark differences from 2014 to this year.

Many in the city are angry that officials didn’t have a plan in place for this, especially since the Western Cape is a water-scarce environment.

But the chance of the region experiencing a prolonged, three-year drought were one in 1,000, said Kevin Winter of the University of Cape Town’s Environmental and Geographical Science Future Water Institute.

No one expected this to happen.

What is the plan for “Day Zero”?

Government officials have been hopeful “Day Zero,” estimated to happen in mid-April, won’t come to fruition but have a plan in place.

Taps will be turned off before the dam runs completely dry and the city will set up 200 collection points where residents will stand in line and collect six gallons of water daily.

The collection points will be under army and police supervision. Public safety has been a point of concern as water becomes more scarce. The hope is with increased conservation, the city’s water will last until at least May when the rainy season should start but experts say there’s no way of knowing when it will begin and the drought will end.

More: ‘Day Zero’: What Cape Town’s water crisis says about inequality

More: Cape Town could be the first major city in the world to run out of water

“We’re in a critical transition period where the past is no longer an accurate guide to the future,” Christine Colvin, a freshwater manager for the World Wide Fund for Nature and a member of the Cape Town mayor’s advisory board, told The Guardian.

Will water be restored?

Since there is uncertainty about when the drought will end, the city has also been examining other water alternatives, including drilling into the ground to reach aquifers.

For now, the city, which borders the South Atlantic Ocean, is setting up a temporary desalination plant to convert saltwater to fresh water.

The plants have become a mainstay in the Middle East and parts of Africa.

Cape Town Deputy Mayor Ian Neilson told reporters the plant will start producing water in March.

But these other options aren’t cheap.

The Cape Town water utility’s deficit has ballooned to $138.3 million, or more than half the total budget for the year, based on the latest consumption figures for October 2017, officials said. That number is widely expected to rise.

There are also worries the water crisis could have a long-term impact on the city’s economy if “Day Zero” does occur.

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